Mumbling Again

Convergence: Apple's Media-centric Home Strategy

I’m not a very good chess player, and it’s often too late before I glean my opponent’s strategy. There’s that “ah ha” moment when you realize a few of the opposing pieces are all converging on one space and you know you’re about to get your ass kicked. If I was Bill Gates, I’d be saying “ah ha” right now because Apple’s been putting a few new pieces on the board, and the strategy is all pointing in one direction. A new way to deliver multimedia content through out the home with a revolutionary new interface, and an online movie store.

The iPod wasn’t a new idea—MP3 players had been around before. It was the genius behind the interface of both the iPod and iTunes that made it a hit with the public, and that in turn made the iTunes Music Store a big hit for Apple. If Apple wants to create an online movie store they’re going to need something just as revolutionary as the iPod to make it work. Meanwhile, Microsoft has been pushing its Windows XP Media Center for a while with some minor success. Although the 10' interface makes it usable, it could be improved a lot, and I doubt that the media capabilities of the forthcoming XBox 360 will be much of a change from the status quo.

Apple also had a minor victory with its Airport Express and AirTunes. And while they might be succeeding with audio content, they have yet to make an easy way to deliver video or photos from the Mac to the living room. And why should they rush something to market before they have all the pieces in place? They’ve already proven with the iPod that you can get in the game late and dominate the market. All you need to do is make it much easier to use.

So what are the pieces being put in place that could make the rumored online movie store work for Apple? First the Mac Mini—rumored as the headless iMac before its release—has already attained a cult following of people who are using it as a hub to build their home theater systems. However this hasn’t taken off with the mainstream because there no good interface to control the media center. The CenterStage project is a good start in this direction, but they’re still going to be stuck following Microsoft with a 10' interface. Elgato’s EyeHome took the same direction too.

The second piece of the puzzle might be a video version of the AirPort Express with a built in video decoding chip and video outputs. Robert X. Cringely speculated this possibility recently:

...the idea of Apple doing a video equivalent of its AirPort Express WiFi repeater that has audio output to link iTunes to your stereo system. This AirPort extension is the last piece needed for Apple’s video service and answers a lot of questions. Why doesn’t the Mac Mini have an optical audio port? Because the AirPort has one, instead. Why isn’t the Mac Mini more powerful? Because it doesn’t have to be. The Mini becomes a storage and downloading device and H.264 decoding is handled in the AirPort gizmo using one of the H.264 hardware decoder chips coming on the market for around $20.

But even if you could use the Mac Mini as the server and a new AirPort Express connected to a TV as the client, how would you control it?

The final piece of the strategy is the interface, and in order for this to catch on like the iPod, it has to be something new and better. Not another 10' interface—streamlined and simplified to be readable displayed on a TV from your couch, and controlled by a simple and unrevolutionary remote. Maybe Apple’s patent application for the rumored tablet computer isn’t a tablet at all. Maybe it’s a wireless touch screen remote for controlling the Apple Media Center. You could control your iTunes from anywhere in the house without turning on the TV or going back to the computer. You could sit on the couch and comfortably browse though your video library, set up a slide show, or even select and download a movie off the web for viewing later while still watching the news on TV. No need to preempt the usage of the TV, or even turn it on to access your content.

And this could work financially for Apple too. If you strip out the processing power and make it a dumb terminal for controlling the media server, you can keep costs down. And if you don’t try to make a big profit on the razor you can turn your dime on the blades. Give away the head for the headless iMac with little profit margin, and sell—or rent—the movies online to the accolades of your shareholders. Just like they did with iTunes and the iPod.